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What should investors do with Paytm stock? Deven Choksey responds


“In my opinion, many of them companies may probably require some inclusion in the small cap indexbut I would have the impression that here the weather is a little more vigilant, cautious”, declares Deven ChokseyMD, DRChoksey FinServ Pvt. Ltd..

Did you manage to go through the list of small cap additions in MSCI? I mean, it might just be called smallcap, but these are big companies. Something that catches your eye?
Well, I haven’t gone through the full list, but I think some of these companies are already off to a good start and I probably don’t want to name the companies with a valuation, but I feel like they MSCI’s mainframe listing was concluded, but they have had their own share of market surge. In my opinion, many of these companies could probably require some inclusion in the small cap index, but I feel that the time is a little more vigilant and cautious here.

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The market has been experiencing significant euphoria of late and as a result its stock price has probably factored in almost FY26 and FY27 into earnings and that’s what you need to be a little more vigilant about because in such a situation, when you give the expected profit, if we take into account the forecast in the price today, in a year and a half or in two years, even if during this trip, if you make mistakes or disappointments in company profits, probably you will be significantly punished. I’m not thinking about small caps, but let’s say for example yesterday Bharat Forge results came in, SAIL results came in. My guess is that these companies were disappointed by the agility that they created in the management of the management of these companies. that they have many opportunities in front of them.

The fact that their growth rate will not be superlative, their growth rate will be linked to the economic growth rate. So if the economy grows at a rate of 11-12%, I think GDP plus interest, I think many PSU companies will now grow at around 14-15% and there could be have some improvement in margins. also, of course.

But most of these special possibilities are now taken into account in the price. So unless there is a big correction in the stock, no one is likely to buy into it. I would remain positive on the energy sector. I would remain positive on the metals and mining sector. However, we would like to see relatively strong performance on a quarterly or quarterly basis if more money is invested in it.

What is the way forward for those still stuck in Paytm and this at a time when brokerages are already reducing their price targets to around 270?
So the point is that their business model was built on UPI gateways, where they would acquire the business transactions and bring them to Paytm bank and that was the model that worked. Now, if downstream, the bank disappears, that means that upstream, the UPI transactions, they don’t have the money in the business and that’s where the biggest challenge is that unless the model is further revamped, which is unlikely to happen in a hurry or, for that matter, if RBI gives them a relatively longer deadline beyond February 29 and probably allows them to use the entirety of their business model, then things could go a little better. At the same time, I would probably stay away from any sort of screening at this point. Something that grabs your attention in large numbers? This earnings season, one or two names that stood out in terms of the quality of the figures and prospects in your eyes?
Honestly, many good companies have presented numbers, but they are not performing well. I think in the housing finance and consumer credit space, companies like Bajaj Finance have reported good numbers. The stock price is underperforming. Companies like Reliance have consistently performed better.

The stock is relatively underperforming. Fortunately, automobiles which until now were not performing as well as they should have been, but some of these companies started performing well, notably Tata Motors.
So that’s a good sign. But on the other hand, Ashok Leyland type companies, due to their poor market action, started falling. So, in my opinion, the fundamentals are intact for automakers. The fundamentals are intact for pharmaceutical companies. They are intact even for some selected companies in different sectors, including financial companies, as well as in the banking sector.

I think the problem is with the amount of money invested in these stocks. Momentum money chases some small and medium-sized stocks, while fundamentally good stocks do not expect a sufficient amount of money. Should they start expecting better money? I think the companies we talked about could potentially perform relatively better on price.

What is the way forward for Bharat Forge now, do you think a few more days of correction and it would become a buy?
Well, yes, we would like to think that way. However, given the type of guidance that is slightly conservative and given the fact that the stock has already seen a rise, I think that even if it corrects and recovers on the price of the drop it saw yesterday . , I still think it won’t be a superlative rise as far as the stock price is concerned.

Unless the market feels some euphoria ahead of the election, the question might be different, but from a fundamental company perspective, the company’s profits and growth are likely fully factored into the stock price. actions to date.

It may be necessary to see how the forecast will be improved in the following year, because the business portfolio of this company remains absolutely strong, including in the field of defense, and this is where we would probably like to believe that in the future the forecasts could become relatively strong and that they could be in a better position to fulfill the order book that they currently have with them.

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