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What future for Ukraine? It’s all about America

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The second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine comes as America prepares for a crucial election and funding for a Ukrainian victory remains stuck in a divided Congress.

Like ours frontline eyewitness accounts shows, Vladimir Putin has the upper hand.

Western leaders have repeatedly warned that Putin would not stop at Ukraine if he had the chance. We are reminded that on the eve of his invasion two years ago, Putin insisted he would not establish a foothold in Ukraine.

Latest war between Ukraine and Russia: Putin “could achieve his war goal”

So what could happen in the months and years to come?

Here are two scenarios. Wacky? It depends on whether the rhetoric is accurate.

First scenario:

It’s March 2025 and a few weeks since Donald Trump was inaugurated as 47th American president.

Donald Trump
Picture:
Donald Trump

Air Force One has just landed in Istanbul where Turkey is hosting the “Donbass Peace Summit” during which an agreement will be signed by the presidents. Poutine And Zelensky.

At Topkapi Palace, overlooking the Bosphorus, the stage is set for a “peace” treaty negotiated by Trump.

The treaty comes three months after Ukraine’s arms supply completely dried up following the US refusal to pass funding bills and the collapse of European unity.

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Latvia: conscription could help NATO

This Istanbul moment is the fulfillment of President Trump’s campaign pledge to “solve the war in Ukraine in one day.”

It took more than a day, but Zelensky found himself trapped due to a lack of Western weapons.

Closed-door meetings between Trump administration officials and the Kremlin (the contents of which were not revealed) sealed the deal: Ukraine agreed to cede the entire Donbass region, in eastern Ukraine, to an enlarged Russian Federation.

Inside Topkapi Palace, Zelensky took the stage for the first time, impassive and wearing a suit rather than his military uniform for the first time since the Russian invasion three years earlier.

He signed the document and left the room without acknowledging President Trump who was presiding at the moment.

(Photo: Reuters)
Picture:
(Photo: Reuters)

A few minutes later, separately, a beaming President Putin appeared, signed the document and shook the US president’s hand.

Three years later, in the spring of 2028, the Russian army massed on the eastern flank of Europe invaded Latvia and Estonia.

Both European nations fell quickly.

NATO, abandoned by Trump’s America a year earlier, was unable to defend them.

In the summer of 2029, Chinese President Xi Jinping launches an air and sea invasion of Taiwan.

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Second scenario:

March 2025. Air Force One lands at kyiv International Airport. Joe Bidenrecently re-elected president of the United States, descends the steps of the plane with a rare spring in his cautious step.

President Joe Biden speaks during his meeting with Alexei Navalny's widow, Yulia Navalnaya, and his daughter Dasha, in San Francisco, February 22, 2024. The US government hits Russia with the largest tranche of financial sanctions imposed on Moscow since its 2022. invasion of Ukraine.  They target around 600 people and companies, from Russia to China to the United Arab Emirates.  The sanctions coincide with the second anniversary of the invasion and in response to Navalny's death.  (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)
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(Photo: AP)

On the tarmac, Ukrainian President Zelensky, in a suit, kisses him. Some observers reported seeing tears in his eyes.

A week earlier, Russian President Putin withdrew his last forces from eastern Ukraine after a bitter winter battle in which about 40,000 troops from both sides were killed.

Putin’s army was decimated after a massive increase in arms from Europe and the United States.

The consequence of a war which lasted three years was the almost total degradation of the Russian army.

This situation was made worse by a surprise thaw in US-China relations and Beijing’s subsequent abandonment of Moscow.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (not pictured) during the Munich Security Conference (MSC), in Munich, Germany February 17, 2024. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/Pool TPX IMAGES DU DAY
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(Photo: Reuters)

A sea change in Middle East geopolitics also helped seal Russia’s fate.

The resignation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his subsequent conviction in the September 7, 2024 investigation paved the way for the Israeli-Saudi normalization agreement.

This isolated Iran and damaged Tehran’s relations with Moscow.

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Ukraine needs “2.5 million shells”

Far-fetched then? Very probably. Donald Trump’s first presidency showed that his fickle unpredictability often negated his wild rhetoric.

And a second Biden term is full of profound unknowns. Republican or Democrat, America seems much less engaged than it once was.

In a world of such disconcerting flux and where global geopolitics are inextricably linked, rule nothing out.

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